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建筑业革命下工程造价咨询产业的使命与机遇

(17-09-14 02:13)

建筑业革命下工程造价咨询产业的使命与机遇
2017-09-14 尹贻林 IPPCE造价智库

一、建筑业革命的特征
1.BlM、大数据、人工智能轮番推动生产关系变革

2.建筑业革命的标志:装配式建筑与建筑生产线的出现使建筑生产效率大幅提升;人工智能将从程序性决策上率先突破,进而替代有规则的建筑管理活动;集成BlM、大数据和人工智能的机器人将大量出现进而替代建筑业生产活动。

二、建筑业革命对传统工程造价咨询产业的破坏和促进
1.装配式建筑与建筑生产线使生产标准化、工厂化,破坏了项目的一次性、单件性生产原则;
2.建筑业革命催生了PPP、EPC和全过程工程咨询等新型生产方式;
3.BlM、大数据、人工智能集成使人类建造超新、超限的超大体量建筑物易如反掌,将刺激国际社会进一步加大投资,进而为建筑业和咨询业生产集中提供动力。从而出现超级总承包商和超级总咨询商,将产业链内化为企业价值链,从而提高了总承包商的讲价能力;

三、建筑业革命将改变定价理论基础和规则
1.过去建筑产品定价沿着马克思劳动创造价值的思想进行确定与控制,工料机消耗量加上间接费,按实际工程量支付与结算;
2.未来将深化马克思劳动价值论,对科技人员、经营管理人员在建筑物价值生产所起作用应予定价,并允许溢价;

3.也要充分肯定科技、知识、信息、等新的生产要素的价值,对科学技术创造出更多的使用价值和价值予以定价;
4.总之建筑业革命将推动工程造价理论的发展:在EPC总承包模式下,设计优化应做为承包商创造的价值归其所有;EPC总承包颠覆了按量发包、按量支付与结算的原则改为按功能发包和按功能支付与结算。
装配式建筑的定价更是明证:部品的定价将遵循市场定价规则抛弃工料机消耗的定价规则;现场装配也将改变为整体建筑商品定价。

四、建筑业革命将彻底改变生产方式
 
1.EPC和全过程工程咨询的经济学根源

2.PPP表面上是基础设施供应方式的机制体制创新,实际是控制权向总承包商方向转移的改革,是公共项目治理领域的重大命题,其实质是降低交易成本,提高抵御风险能力。与此对应的是大标段招标的EPC和DBB,以及EPCO和EPC+OM等。

五、工程造价咨询产业的机遇
 
第一条路径:为PPP项目提供全生命顾问服务
(一)勇于做PPP项目全生命婚姻顾问
     广大工程咨询机构尤其是工程造价咨询机构则特别懂工程尤其是投资数额和资产形成,还有运营维护费用的确定与支付。它们才是直正的婚姻顾问,但是因为没有更早熟悉婚礼的程序和模式化的赞语显得束手无策和张惶失措。 
   少数工程造价咨询企业先知先觉,先人一步掌握了婚庆程序和模式化语言后,发挥了自己熟悉全生命周期的长处飞速发展。云南云岭提出PPP全生命周期咨询理念受到政府的好评,云南报送第四批示范项目中云岭保驾护航的占45%以上。开元咨询提出PPP一站式项目咨询解决方案,带动企业迅猛发展。天津泰达咨询则提出PPP项目第三方监管概念,使企业迅速占领京津冀PPP咨询市场。

   工程造价咨询机构应勇于充当PPP的婚姻顾问,前达项目可行性研究和投资估算,中达设计优化和概算及招标控制价并支持招标代理,后至施工支付监管结算审计和资产决算,最终利用养护定额监督运营维护和支付。造价工程师的另一个分支即为房屋等构造物的使用寿命鉴定和价值评估正好满足了PPP移交阶段的需求。这样的机构形成的工程咨询产业产值达1200亿,从业人员已近百万,与各级政府的财政和审计部门有传统的联系和良好的合作关系。 
(二)PPP婚姻顾问要做什么
1.                              可用性主要是投资审计问题

     解决PPP资产虚化问题。PPP资产是怎么虚化的,第一是两标并一标后不能用竞争压出概算水分,第二是PPP采用EPC总承包后的设计优化,第三是社会资本获得PPP项目控制后可能偷工减料。上述三个成因致使PPP资产虚化,使可用性付费不能物有所值。很明显只办婚礼的婚庆公司类咨询机构胜任不了这个任务,能胜任的只有工程造价咨询机构。
 2.绩效评价的关键在于设计参数的实现

     设计参数是PPP项目的纲领和宪法,它实现的关键是设计和建设阶段,并且是运营阶段的考核目标。绩效考核的结论直接影响政府的按绩效付费数量,按绩效付费也可能虚化,虚化的方向是:递次降低修缮标准,减量降质提供服务,竭泽而渔移交政府。如果靠实施机构限于编制控制而顾不过来,那么依靠懂工程、熟BlM、谙成本的工程造价机构是不二选择。
 3.移交资产的保镖

     并不像那些搞金融的先生想的那样移交阶段只关注资产价值数量,还有最重要的是安全使用寿命。社会资本控制着PPP项目必定像租来出租车一样多拉快跑,能不修就不修,对资产实行竭泽而渔式的运营。这种长期带病运行的资产一旦移交给政府,其安全使用寿命就非常重要,所以工程造价咨询机构也是移交资产的金牌保镖。
 第二条路径:转型全过程工程咨询
  全过程工程咨询就是咨询型代建,以PPP为龙头带动咨询型代建。目前工程造价咨询机构进入PPP咨询领域愈来愈多,具备了带动咨询型代建业务的条件。关键是:(PPP+EPC+OM)BIM


 第三条路径:由传统工程造价咨询转为新型工程造价咨询

 第四条件路径:发展壮大
   模式一:分公司模式(加盟方式;全资质、全业绩、轻松管理)
   模式二:信永中和发展模式(类似于会计师事务所的扩张之路)
   模式三:中大信开元模式(新设合并)
   模式四:凯谛思模式(契约联盟方式)


 

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